Have you ever wondered why bookies price odds the way they do? I mean, sure, they have stats backing it up but what does it all mean? It all comes down to the implied probability.

The implied probability is the % chance of something happening based on the bookmaker’s odds. To show this, we’ve created the below table using the odds range of 1.40 (2/5) to 3.20 (11/5) as an example…

So, we can see that if something is priced at 3.00 (2/1) by the bookie then they are implying that there is a 33.33% chance of that event happening, which means there’s a 66.67% chance of it not.

How to use this information for your own benefit…

Right, so how can I use this to my advantage I hear you asking? Well, using our data on the Insights and Team Stats pages you can see the % of times that certain events have happened so far in the season.

You can then compare that to the bookmaker’s implied probability, and if that’s lower than the % our stats are telling you then that means there’s some great value in the odds. In other words, based on past stats, the odds should be lower! So, if you’re looking for good value bets then you’ve just found one!

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An example…

Right, let’s show you an example. So, as I am writing this post I can see that later on in the early hours of tomorrow morning Houston Dynamo are playing FC Dallas in MLS. This one is perfect to analyse as our Insights are showing a good number of selections. Below is a screenshot of said insights for the game…

You can see the % of times each event has happened in games so far this season for these two sides, so let’s pick out the ones in green for a closer look and compare them to a popular bookmaker’s odds.

You can see from the table above that there is a chance to get some good value on both the Over 0.5 First Half Goals and Over 8 Corners markets. This is because the bookie’s odds imply a probability of each event happening that is lower than the number of times it has happened so far this season already.

In other words, there have been Over 8 Corners on average in 87.12% of Houston home games and Dallas away games but the bookie thinks (based on the odds they’ve priced it at) that the chance of there being over 8 corners is ‘just’ 69.44%.

This represents excellent value and is a chance to get one over on the bookies by taking advantage of them potentially underpricing it.

Why not give it a go this weekend? Full access to our stats comes with our premium subscription which is currently available at just £9.95 (down from £12.99). If you subscribe now then you will be guaranteed to never pay more than £9.95 a month as long as you stay subscribed. Just claim this deal here.

Happy Betting! And remember, the smart gambler always plays the bookies at their own game.

READ MORE

• Read our betting strategy on the Over / Under Goals Market HERE
• Read our betting strategy on the Corners Market HERE