In this article we want to write about a few tips that will help you become betting at picking winning football bets. This will be an overview article as in the future we’ll go into the eight tips more indepthly but we can assure you that if you follow these steps and learn how to harness them you’ll soon be on your way to long term profitability in the football betting markets.

Value Betting

If you’re a regular reader of these articles you’re probably rolling your eyes now thinking ‘ah here, he’s on about value betting again…’ Well, yes sorry, not sorry as the kids say, value betting is the single most important concept in sports gambling. Full stop. Once you understand value, and it may take a while for it to click, then you can really start to make better betting decisions.

At its most basic, value betting is taking the price a book offers because you believe, from your own research and calculations that they’re ‘overpriced’ something. So, for example in this weekend’s Premier League Wolves take on Spurs at home, Over 2.5 goals is currently priced around 1.90, but you reckon it should be priced at 1.80, this means it’s a value bet.

Once you figure out how to consistently pick value in the markets you’ll be able to make bets at better prices and this is what leads to long term profitability. Of course, you won’t get every choice right, but it’s not necessarily about getting the picks correct, it’s about finding where the value is in the market.

Always be Willing to Learn

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting a different results. You can always learn to be better at something and that’s just a good way to life your life, there’s always more to learn, always more to experience and always more to witness. The same applies to betting on football matches. One of the greatest examples of this in recent years, when it comes to football betting, is the popularity of Expected Goals (xG). Many if us shrugged our shoulders at this new stat and dismissed it as nonsense, but over the years it has been shown that xG is a great indicator for how many goals will be scored by a team.

The same goes for Bet Dynamo, our Insights Page is constantly being updated with the latest data so we can calculate the implied probabilites of events occurring in football matches then comparing them to the bookmaker prices so we can identify value in the market.

Bet on what you Know

Duisburg take on Unterhaching this weekend and with a win can put even more distance between themselves and the chasing pack. Who, you’re thinking. Well, this is our point. Know the teams your betting on and while attractive prices can be, well, attractive you need to know a few things about the teams involved; motivations, team news and injuries, recent form, head to head record and that bookies make prices not by implied probability along, but by adding their commission and giving attractive prices to attractive mug punters. Don’t be a mug, bet on the teams and league that you know and, as in the point above, continue to learn about those teams and leagues, become an expert in them and then move on to new leagues and markets.

The same goes for the markets, if you like betting on markets involving goals, Over 2.5/3.5, Both Teams to Score etc. then stick to that, or if you prefer the Asian Handicap markets, the same stick to that and become as good as you can at identifying value in those markets.

Oh, and look up Duisburg’s crest, we can’t think of any other team in world football that has a zebra on their crest. Pretty bizarre for a German team.