In a previous article entitled Things to Avoid when Betting, we spoke about why chasing losses is one of the worst things you can do when betting. Chasing losses is guaranteed to end with a betting balance of zero and our advice is to instead stop for the day and look at your betting choices with fresh eyes the next day. You can read the article here: Things to Avoid when Betting

To be a success at betting takes a lot of hard graft and nerves of steel, but as well you need to be able to remain objective and identify the difference between a bad decision and just plain bad luck. Today we want to talk about another thing you should avoid when betting; Betting for the sake of it.

Betting for the Sake of it

Let’s start with an example, you’re at a loose end one Saturday night, your mates are all out on dates and your girlfriend is on a girlie night out. You could stick on the PS4 but by the time it loads up and you choose a game it’s going to take forever. As usual there’s nothing on TV and Netflix just spoils you for choice. You have a look at the football fixtures and see a funny name; Colon vs Rosario is about to kick off in the Argentinian Superliga and put a tenner on Over 2.5 goals at 1.91. The match ends 0-0. Why did you make that bet?

You made it because you were bored. Even just looking at the odds, when a bookie offers 1.91 they’re giving something around a 50% chance of happening. Of course, the fair odds of a 50% probability is 2.0 (Evens) but the bookies need to make their money too and we know from experience 1.91 usually reflects a 50% chance. So, you took a chance and lost. No biggie, right?

No, we hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you just threw away money for no reason other than you were bored. And look, it’s very easy to fall into this trap. Another example would be that the biggest Premier League match of the season is fast approaching, Man United are at home to Liverpool, Liverpool are top of the league and Man United have just hired former Juventus manager Max Allegri having finally fired Ole Gunnar Solskjaer after a terrible start to the season (OK, we’re in the realms of fantasy here, but Allegri in the PL is going to happen eventually). Sky Sports news and all the sports radio programmes have been building it up for the last six days straight, you’re listened to the usual eight football podcasts you subscribe to and even as a diehard Leeds United fan you’re starting to get excited.

Oh go on then, you put twenty quid on Over 2.5 goals at 1.85. Decent odds for such a big match. Aren’t they? No, not really, you’ve fallen for the hype and you’re betting again for the sake of it. In 84 top flight matches there have been 212 goals between both teams, that’s an average of 2.52. So even by looking at that stat you can see that the odds are low. When you look further into the history of recent matches and take into account recent home and away form for both teams you’ll quickly see that the bookies are about right and you’ve made a bet with no value and even if you do win, in the long term better without value leads to losses over time.

You can avoid making bets like these though and it’s not so hard to do. Just be a bit more disciplined and try to take a more objective and analytical approach to your betting. There are literally 1000s of football matches every month and you can find value bets daily if you’re willing to put the work in.

Another idea would be to set up a separate account with a bookie you don’t use much and use that as your ‘fun account’ Small stakes and only fun, non-researched bets. It won’t lead to any profit, but if you can afford it and it still gives you that release for your ‘hit and hope’ bets then feel free, but in your serious account leave that for well researched, objective betting tips.