What is Value Betting and how can you use it on your journey to becoming a profitable bettor?

When you’re new to betting it can be a world of jargon, spin and shysters selling snake oil. What exactly is an Asian Handicap? Why it is Over 2.5 goals instead of 3 goals or more? Lay the draw, that’s the same as No Draw, isn’t it? The term ‘value betting’ though, of all the terms you’ll come across as you enter the world of betting, well, it’s probably the most important.

What is Value Betting?

Let’s begin with an example. You’re with your friend and you decide to bet on a coin toss. We all know that both heads and tails have a 50% chance of landing. In odds that’s 2.0. Your friend gives you odds of 2.10 on heads and 1.90 on tails. Which one do you take? Well, if you answered heads then my friend you know, even instinctively, what value betting is.

At it’s very basic, value betting is taking a bet where you believe the bookies have gotten the price wrong and are giving you better odds than you expected. Now, when a bookie gets involved in the above example things change, he gives both of you odds of 1.90 on heads and tails winning. Let’s say you and your friend bet £10 each. You pick heads and win. The bookie keeps your friend’s tenner and pay you your winnings of £9 and gives you your tenner back thus keeping a pound for himself. This is basically how bookies make their money.

Football Value Bets

Now that we know what value betting is, how can we use value betting in our arsenal? Well, let’s take an example from an upcoming match. Over on the Bet Dynamo Value Bets page (here) we can see that Chapecoense take on Atletico Mineiro in the Brazilian Serie A next weekend.

The bookies have priced Both Teams to Score (BTTS) at 2.0 on average (the highest being 2.09).

By offering odds of 2.0 the bookies are indicating that they believe there’s a 50% chance that both Chapecoense and Atletico Mineiro will find the back of the net. However, as you can see from the Bet Dynamo Value Bets page, our mighty software has given BTTS a 78% chance of happening. Quite frankly that’s insane value. Usually we’d be talking in terms of 3-10% value if we find any at all, but getting a price of 2.0 rather than 1.78 screams value. I must add that 1.78 would be a ‘fair price’ but if we add in the bookie’s cut, it would be more like they’d offer something closer to 1.70, but we’ll talk more about that in a later article.

Now, whether both teams do actually score next Saturday night remains of course to be seen, there are no sure things in betting, but with value on your side you’re getting an edge over the bookies and that means that over time if you remain consistent with your value betting picks you will be profitable.

This is not a get-rich-quick scheme, value betting is a long-term journey towards profit and there will be many dips and highs along the way. You need patience and a keen eye for what a value bet is and what most people don’t write about too, you need to remove all emotions from your betting. Yes, Frank, we know you detest Leeds United, we get it, you never shut up about it, but when they kick off their 2019/20 Championship campaign away to Bristol City in early August, and Over 2.5 goals is available for more than the 1.85 it should be then you’re getting some value.