Betting tips & predictions

Betting on Over/Under 2.5 Goals

19th August 2021


Betting on Over/Under 2.5 goals has become the biggest market in football over recent years. For as long as traditional football betting had been around it had always been the main Home Win/Draw/Away Win market that had been pulling in the punters but over recent years there’s a new top dog in town, the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market. In this article we want to write about the stats we need to pay attention to to find value in this Over/Under 2.5 Goals market.

Betting on Over/Under 2.5 Goals: The Basics

First and foremost we need to define exactly what this bet is. You’re not looking to predict exactly how many goals a game will see, you’re just looking to predict which matches will have a minimum of three or more goals, if you’re betting on Over 2.5 goals but if you’re betting on Under 2.5 goals, then you’re looking for games where you think that, at most, two goals, or less will be scored. It’s as simple as that, no messing about with looking at how many games a team has won recently at home, or away, or both and looking at recent wins over rivals either. We’re looking at goals and only goals.

Betting on Over/Under 2.5 Goals: The Statistics

When looking into the stats, Bet Dynamo’s Insight Page really comes into its own. Looking at an upcoming match from this weekend’s Allsvenskan in Sweden we can see that Malmo are taking on Degerfors. We can see that Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85.71% of home Malmo matches but in just 37.50% of away games for Degerfors.

Another important stat to pay attention to is the Goals Scored and Goals Conceded stats. As we can see from the same match, Malmo have an excellent record of scoring at home, averaging 2.57 goals so far this season and they’ve been conceding plenty as well, 1.43 per game. Degerfors are only averaging 0.62 goals per away league game but are conceding 2.0 per game. This one looks ripe for Over 2.5 goals. The combined stats tell us that the implied probability is at 62% meaning that if we see a bookie offering a price above 1.62 then we’re getting some value.

Betting on Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Finding Value

The basic definition of value in football betting is that you’re getting better odds than what you should be getting. Like in the example above, the ‘fair price’ for a game with a probability of 62% is 1.62 but once the bookie puts their overround into the mix then for a game with an implied probability of 62% we’re more likely to see odds of around 1.57 or thereabouts. However, once we can get odds above 62%, which is 1.62 then we’re getting value.

It is so important to keep looking for value when it comes to betting and with the Bet Dynamo Insights page the hard work is done by us. You can sign up here.

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