Premier League Acca
So this is it for the final round of Premier League matches for 2019 and we’ve decided to go with a 4-fold accumulator bet thanks to scoring through the stats and finding some value in some short-odds selections. Let’s end 2019 with a bang then and check out what we’re backing.
We’re going to be looking at the three 3pm kick offs and one of the later ones.
Newcastle vs Everton: Newcastle Double Chance - 1.69
Newcastle come into this match after being on the wrong end of a Manchester United trounching. Man United got better and better as the match progressed and really, were it not for some good saves from Martin Dubravka in the Newcastle goal it could have been more. What made it worse though was that Newcastle were the better team until Mason Greenwood put United ahead after Anthony Martial had levelled the scoring.
Regardless of that result, Newcastle are on a great run of form at home this season, they’ve lost only one of their nine at home, a 0-1 defeat to Arsenal back in August, since then they’ve gone eight matches without losing, winning four and drawing four.
Everton got their first win under Carlo Ancellotti at home to Burnley, but their away form is dire, they’ve won one, drawn two and lost six of their away PL matches this season. Big Carlo’s a great manager but he’s going to need time to make Everton a good team again and hopefully he’s going to hit the transfer window with a bundle of cash to improve the bang-average squad he’s been given. Saying that, a few players are going to need to impress him between now and the end of January, otherwise they could be for the chop. Newcastle should keep that impressive run going here so our pick here is Newcastle to Win or Draw at 1.69.
Southampton vs Crystal Palace: Under 3.5 goals - 1.28
Southampton pulled off one of the results of the season by beating Chelsea 0-2 at Stamford Bridge on Boxing Day. Manager Ralph Hasenhuttl looked bewildered on the touchline at full time, having no idea how his side pulled off such a result. The Saints finally pulled themselves out of the relegation zone with that win, can they get another one here to jump further up the table?
As you can see from the Bet Dynamo Insights Page image above there’s no value in the goals markets here at all, so we’re looking at a short odds selection of Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Only 3/9 home Southampton matches have seen Over 3.5 goals, while for Palace on their travels only 2/9 have seen Over 3.5 goals. Southampton are only averaging 1.0 goals per match at St Mary’s, while Palace are averaging 1.33 goals on their travels in the league. With those stats in mind we think we’re looking at a low-scoring affair here so we’re picking Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.
Watford vs Aston Villa: Under 3.5 Goals - 1.46
Watford are finally off the bottom of the Premier League table having beating Man United and drawing with Sheffield United over their last two matches. That win over United was their first home win of the season though, they’ve drawn four and lost the other four this season, scoring a paltry six goals over their nine home matches. Pretty pathetic really.
Villa are the worst performing away team in the Premier League; one win, one draw and seven losses and just 12 goals scored on their travels.
Watford have only had 2/9 matches go Over 3.5 goals at home this season, while for Villa on the road have seen a fair few, 4/9 go Over 3.5. The odds are decent here for this selection because of Villa’s leaky defence on the road. However, Watford are only averaging 0.67 goals at home in the PL this season, Villa are averaging 1.33 goals per match away from home. Thanks to those stats, we’re backing Under 3.5 goals at 1.46.
Norwich vs Spurs: Both Teams to Score - 1.59
Norwich are in big trouble now, bottom of the table and some really sticky matches on the horizon. They’re one of the worst performing home teams of the season, winning just two matches over their nine played at Carrow Road this season, drawing one and losing the other six. They’ve been good in front of goal though, scoring 14, however, they’ve conceded 22. Only Southampton have conceded more goals at home.
As you can see from the Bet Dynamo Insights Page there’s plenty of value to be had in this match. Over 2.5 also looks like a good shout as it’s occurred in 8/9 previous home Norwich matches and 8/9 away Spurs matches too. BTTS has also landed in 8/9 home Norwich and 8/9 away Spurs matches and we feel it’s the safer bet than Over 2.5 so we’re going with Both Teams to Score at 1.59.
A recap of the selections: Newcastle vs Everton: Newcastle Double Chance - 1.69 Southampton vs Crystal Palace: Under 3.5 goals - 1.28 Watford vs Aston Villa: Under 3.5 Goals - 1.46 Norwich vs Spurs: Both Teams to Score - 1.59
All of these picks into an Acca will give you odds of around 5.40. Good luck if you’re on it.