Betting tips & predictions

Tips to Help you Beat the Bookies

9th December 2019

Articles

In this article we want to speak about a few tips that can help us all beat the bookie. It’s certainly not easy and it can’t be done overnight but if you follow these tips and stick closely to them you’ll be on your way to bashing the bookies and long term profitability.

Value Betting

One of our favourite subjects here at Bet Dynamo is Value Betting. Indeed, it’s the main reason we operate. A quick look at our Insights Page and you can instantly see whether or not there’s value in the market. We do this by comparing the implied chance of an event happening in a football match, for example, Over 1.5 or Over 2.5 goals, with the odds on offer from a major bookmaker.

Value Betting is basically getting a better price of an event happening than the price on offer. For example, in an upcoming Premier League match between Sheffield United and Aston Villa, the price for Over 2.5 goals is currently at 1.89, however, by your calculations you’ve worked it out that it should be priced at 1.79, so you’re getting some good value there and you go with the bet.

An important aspect of value betting is that you’re not looking to make the correct prediction, but you’re looking to make the selection with the best value. When predicting an Over/Under choice you have a 50% chance of being correct, the match either ends with Over 2.5 goals or Under 2.5 goals but within that 50% chance you need to work out whether Over or Under 2.5 goals offers the best value. Learning to read the market and how it reacts is paramount too. It takes time but Rome wasn’t built in a day so take your time and learn as much as you can about value betting and the betting markets.

Discipline

This is one of the most difficult aspects of sports betting, remaining steadfast in your approach to trying to achieve long term profitability. When you’re on a winning run it’s hard to remain objective and take a step back, it’s very tempting to up your stakes and try and win more. We’re all greedy by nature so we have to kind of break that nature and remain as objective and as cold as we can when it comes to betting.

The same goes for losing runs and probably the only way to learn this is through experience. Every article you’ll read about discipline will tell you not to chase losses, but we’re all done it, especially at the beginning. Trying to martingale our way out of trouble and trying to recoup losses. It’s a dangerous strategy/staking method and we really wouldn’t recommend it.

As well, we need to remain vigilant of our bets, and examine exactly why they won or lost. Sometimes a ball can bounce off a defender’s behind and nestle into the back of the net in the 95th minute to give us a win. But was the bet correct, did it actually have value or were we just lucky?

Courage

Sometimes we can see some value in the betting markets and we just think ‘naw, that can’t be right’. Imagine the scenario, a top-of-the-table clash between two teams chasing the last Champions League place for next season, it’s all set for Over 2.5 goals and the price has fallen from 1.90 midweek to just 1.65 now, the market is heavily backing loads of goals because both teams need the win.

Your calculations and research are showing however that Under 2.5 goals has the value, but your can’t help thinking this is wrong. Have you been swayed by the media and they hype surrounding the match?

The match ends 0:0. The value was with the Unders side. Many times when chasing value in the betting markets you’re going to have to go against the crowd and against what the market is showing. Remember this, you’re not only against the bookies here, you’re also against the market. Be brave, but don’t blindly jump in and make contrarian bets just for the sake of it, do your research and always look for value. If there’s no value, more on to another match.

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