The Bet Dynamo Insights Page is perfect for finding matches for your Over 1.5 Goals Accas, just a quick look and we can see the amount of matches that have a good probability of Over 1.5 goals occurring in matches.

As you can see from the screenshot of some upcoming Premier League matches, they are all ripe for Over 1.5 goals, however, before placing your bets you need to do some additional work to make sure that you’re making the best selections.

We need to make sure that both teams are putting out full strength squads for the matches, are some of the usual goal scorers injured or suspended? Maybe there’s an important cup game coming up soon and the manager and team are more concentrated on winning that upcoming match.

It’s important to know the motivation of the teams involved too, for example the Southampton vs Norwich match from that list is a ‘relegation 6-pointer’ as both teams are in big trouble in the Premier League and both need the win to try and get out of the relegation zone.

Recent from is important too, we need to know that the teams involved are either scoring plenty, or conceding plenty, or both. Head to head form is crucial too, as sometimes we can have teams against each other where the away team has a terrible record playing at the home team’s stadium. We’re written extensively about all of these factors before in a series, the first of which you can read here: Football Betting Statistics.

Betting on Over 1.5 goals in football matches can be rewarding especially if you put a few selections into Doubles, Trebles or Accas. If we put four of these selections into an Acca we’d get odds of 2.28 and by using websites like oddsportal we can compare the prices of different bookmakers and get the best value for our money.

Caution with Over 1.5 Acca Bets

As we’re written about before it’s important to factor in a bookie’s overround (also known as vig/juice/commission). When you make a wager with any online sportsbook even if you win the bookie earns a cut from your bet.

Let’s say you bet £10 on Over 2.5 goals in Wolves vs West Ham from the list of matches above, at the time of writing it’s priced at 1.85 (Under 2.5 is 1.98). If you lose the bet you lose your tenner. If you win, you’ll win £8.50, but what you didn’t figure into the bet was that your bookie overround was 4.55% (1.85 + 1.98 = 54.04% & 50.50% implied probability, add them together and we get the 4.55% overround), so they made a few pennies from you because really the odds they should have been offering should have been 1.93 if they were really fair. Bookies rarely offer fair odds and that’s why looking for value is so important for long term profitability.

Look at the formula to calculate what fair odds should be for your bets:

Herein lies our problem, for every selection in our 4-match Acca above, the bookie takes a cut from each bet in the Acca, so we’re effectively handing over approximately 4-5% of each wager to the bookie for nothing. If we’re not sure about a bet landing maybe we need to ask ourselves that maybe it would be better to make one bet at odds of 2.28 rather than four bets with a combined odds of 2.28 when we’re looking for value?

We all have different styles of betting, some people love betting on Over 1.5 goals and Over 0.5 goals markets and putting them into accumulators, however we need to know the full facts about these bets and not become blinded by odds alone and in trying to combine matches to get a certain price in your acca, sometimes you’re going to be better off just betting on a single event in one match rather than on three, or four, or more events in different matches.

It’s important to know as much as you can about the bets your making and as much as you can about the teams involved and about the hidden costs of bets. Knowing all of these things and factoring all of them into your bets will lead to you making better betting decisions over the long term and will make you become a bettor when it comes to betting on football matches.