Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town Betting Tips and Predictions

Bristol Rovers go into this M4 Derby match needing a win to finish top of Group 14 in the EFL Trophy group stage. Swindon, meanwhile, cannot qualify and have failed to win any points in their two matches so far. The home side made the semifinals last season and will be eager to at least match that this season so will very much be up for this match. Swindon however have conceded six goals over their two matches and are probably more concerned with their League Two campaign where they sit third in the table currently.

Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town Betting Tips and Predictions: Bristol

Bristol’s form of late hasn’t been wonderful, one win, two draws and two losses from their last five in all competitions, but the bookies make them huge favourites for this match, they’re currently priced around 1.65. As mentioned above this is likely due to Bristol having a good record in this competition, having home advantage, being a league tier higher than the visitors and Swindon being more concerned with their League Two campaign where they’re pushing for promotion back to League One. 

The Pirate’s home form makes for better reading though; two wins, two draws and one loss. Competition rules dictate that teams cannot rotate their teams too much so unlike the League Cup, teams involved must take it a bit more seriously and field strong starting XIs.

Top scorer Jonson Clarke-Harris is doubtful for this match, he’s recovering from an injury and is due back next weekend, but he could make the bench here. Defender Tom Davies is back in training and may feature here.

Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town Betting Tips and Predictions: Swindon

Swindon’s position at the bottom of Group 14 doesn’t really do them justice, they’ve been quite good this season, chalking up 30 points from a possible 39 in League Two. Much of this has been thanks to striker Eoin Doyle, who has scored 14 league goals in his 14 league appearances. They’ve certainly got the talent and the form to cause an upset here and indeed they did just that in 2017 when they beat the home side 2:4.

Their away record in the M4 Derby is pretty bad though. Since 2001 they’ve only won at the Memorial Stadium once, that 2017 match, which was in the same competition. Team news is crucial here and if manager Richard Wellens names a full strength starting XI they may cause an upset. The thing is, Swindon know they’re already out of this competition and face an away trip to Salford City on Saturday in the league.

Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town Betting Tips and Predictions: Stats

Of Bristol Rover’s five most recent matches, they’ve won one, drawn one and lost two. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 2/5, while BTTS has landed in 3/5.

Of Swindon’s five most recent matches, they’ve won three, drawn one and lost three. Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 3/5, while BTTS has landed in 3/5.

Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town Betting Tips and Predictions: Tips and Predictions

The Asian Handicap opened at 1 and has moved to 0.75, as the market was backing Swindon heavily. The price is currently Bristol -0.75 at 1.91, Swindon +0.75 at 1.93.

The goal line opened at 2.75 and hasn’t moved.

We’re looking at goals here and there’s some value in the 2.75 line, it should be priced closer to 1.75 so getting 1.85 is good. Our value bet then is Over 2.75 goals at 1.85.