There are a few key elements that are crucial for long term success and profitability in sports betting. The first of which is ‘value betting’ something we’ve written about many times before, but if you don’t know what it is it’s basically betting on odds that you believe are higher than what they should be.

So for example, an upcoming match between, say, Roma and Lazio, the Rome derby, the bookies have Both Teams to Score priced at 1.98, by your reckoning and research it should be 1.75, so you’re getting plenty of ticks of value on that bet. One of the other key elements is remaining critical of your bets and reexamining why they won and why they lost.

With that in mind, let’s have a look at the bets we recommend over the weekend. Our first match was the Bundesliga II match between St Pauli and Bochum. The bet we recommend was Under 2.5 goals at 2.34. For this match the market was pretty heavily backing Over 2.5 goals but we identified that the value actually lay on the other side of the market. In the first half, both teams scored and it looked like our bet was a dud. However, neither team scored again in the second half despite both teams going for the winner in the late stages so our bet won.

Our next bet was Norwich vs Watford where the recommended bet was Home AH 0, or Draw No Bet at 2.0. Unfortunately we got this one wrong, so where did it go wrong? The stats slightly favoured Norwich to win here, so we took the AH 0 bet knowing that we had some insurance if it ended all square. Going into the match Watford haven’t won a Premier League match since April and hadn’t won one on the road since February. There was some late teams news as well that tipped the balance in favour of the Hornets. Watching the match it was clear to see that Watford were up for it more so our bet lost. Would we make the same bet again? No, this one was a bad one and team news played a vital role in deciding the match.

Our next value bet was Over 3 goals in the Premier League match between Leicester and Arsenal. The final score was 2:0 to the home side. Coming into this match both teams were in good goal scoring form, Leicester had only not scored in one previous PL match all season, Arsenal too had scored in all but one matches this season. Historically four out of five of the previous meetings between the sides had finished with Over 2.5 goals landing and with Leicester, in particular, in such great goal scoring form the value was with Over 3 goals. Where did the bet go wrong? Well, Arsenal were woeful, they barely bothered to turn up for the match and only registered one Shot on Goal over the 90 minutes. The weather also played a factor, it was raining cats and dogs for pretty much all of the match. Was it a bad bet though? No because on another day this match would have produced at least one more goal so we’d have made it again. It was a loss, but value had been on our side.

Next up was Der Klassiker where Bayern Munich hosted Borussia Dortmund. Our value bet was Over 1.5 First Half Goals at 2.04. Robert Lewandowski opened the scoring at 17 minutes and it looked like out bet would land, especially in the 38th minute when Serge Gnabry scored again. However, it was ruled out for offside. Annoyingly he scored on 47 minutes, two minutes after the restart. We had value on our side here, this bet had landed in 6/7 previous meetings between the sides at the Allianz Arena and we were unlucky not to see it land here. While annoying that a bet doesn’t land we have to keep in mind that we’re betting value here and that doesn’t mean we’re always going to get it correct. The odds for Over 1.5 FH goals really should have been closer to 1.70, so we had great value on our side and on another day it would have won.

Next up was the Liverpool vs Manchester City clash at Anfield where we recommended Over 3 goals at 2.05 and also said the Liverpool price at 2.68 should have been closer to 2.20. Liverpool raced into an early lead and were 2-0 up before 15 minutes had passed thanks to Mo Salah and Fabinho goals. After the restart Sadio Mane scored the third meaning our stake was safe and we’d at least get a void/refunded bet. City’s Bernardo Silva then scored a consolation for the away side and our bet was a winner. City could have had a couple of penalties in the match and both goalkeepers made plenty of saves throughout the match. The goal line prior to the match was at 2.75 but we went with a higher line of three thanks to looking at previous head to head matches between the two of late and the goal scoring threat both teams had thanks to having, pretty much, fully fit squads.

Our final match of the weekend was Juventus vs AC Milan where we recommend Both Teams to Score at 1.95. Unfortunately the match finished 1:0. We had value on our side though, as we wrote in the price BTTS should have really been priced at 1.80 so we were getting great value. This was going to be Juventus’ seventh match in 21 days and as the match played out they looked incredibly tired, except for goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny. The Pole pulled off seven saves over the 90 minutes to keep a Clean Sheet for the Old Lady and Milan were very unlucky not to score. Donnarumma in the Milan goal wasn’t as busy as his counterpart but also denied Juventus on a few occasions to keep the score down. Was it a bad bet? Well, it was because it didn’t win, but we had some great value on our side and were it not for some great goalkeeping from the man who is probably the best ‘keeper in Serie A at the moment this bet would have landed. In 4/5 previous Serie A meetings between the sides the bet had landed and were they to play this match again today we’d still recommend a BTTS bet.

Overall we made a small loss of -1.61 units over those five matches and of the recommended bets we can only say that the Norwich one was wrong, the other had good value on their sides and on other occasions would have landed. It’s important to go back over your bets, reexamine them to see where you went wrong so that you can amend your strategies and your methods to ensure that you’re betting with value.