Betting tips & predictions

Rules for Betting on Football

8th October 2019

Articles

Here at Bet Dynamo we want to be as inclusive as possible with our football stats. That’s why we believe our website can be used by people who enjoy the odd punt on a football match at the weekend, by those who want to get into betting as a way of making money full time, and by professional traders/bettors who already do it on a day-to-day basis.

We’re aware too that sometimes we can all drop the ball and get a bit carried away with our own hype after a string of wins. You might have won the last five bets in a row, but how many of them were down to a couple of lucky goals against the run of play? We need to always remind ourselves that just because something happened once does not mean it will happen again. The same goes for a bad run, instead of sticking with a strategy that we think should work, we need to examine it and see where it’s going wrong. We’ve put together a list of Rules for Betting on Football so that you won’t fall into the trap of bad betting habits. In today’s article you can read about the Top 3 rules.

Bet Only When There’s Value

We’re pretty sure you’re getting sick of us writing about value betting, but we have to stress it again and again (and will continue to do so), you need to have value on your side to beat the bookies long term. Value betting is getting a price for an event at higher odds than what your bookie is offering. So, for example, Manchester United take on Liverpool in about two week time. Currently, the bookies with the highest odds is offering Over 2.5 goals at 1.82, by your calculations you think it should occur in 60% of matches between the old rivals, this would mean odds of around 1.65 so you can see there’s some good value on offer.

High odds can be tempting, but you need to examine if they actually offer value. Bookies set their prices based not only on the probability of an event occurring, but also on the volume of bets they’ll get from punters for offering certain prices. We’re written an article about it here: How Bookies set Betting Odds

Learn, Learn and Continue to Keep Learning

The more you know the further you’ll go. It was either our Dad told us that, or it was a rapper who appeared in the Simpsons, either way it’s good advice. Let’s say something crazy happens and you’ve won your last ten bets in a row, you’ve stumbled on the betting strategy of a lifetime and you’re seriously considering giving up your job to live the life of a pro gambler. The 11th match, you lose, OK, you think, no biggie, you’re still up. Then it goes down the swanee, bets 12-17 all lose and your dreams are shattered, the strategy isn’t a strategy at all, it was just a string of luck and it’s reverted to the mean.

When you were winning though you should have been paying attention to why the bets were winning, were there lucky goals scored, goals against the run of play, fortunate red cards, a dodgy penalty. etc.? It’s very easy to overlook trends when you’re winning and it can take a losing run for a person to really examine where a strategy is going wrong. However, as difficult as it may be, we need to try and remain objective with our bets so that we can stay on top of our bets and question our decisions, be they winning or losing ones.

Bet with your Head not your Heart

The real test of are you being an objective bettor is when the day comes that you bet against your team. Derek mate, we know you love West Ham, we’ve seen the tattoos and the watch and the cufflinks your wore on your wedding day and yes, we know that you called your first kid Bobby after the great Bobby Moore even though it was a girl. Fair play, we still don’t know how you convinced the wife, but hey, it’s certainly a story. Anyway Eric, the Hammers face Everton after the international break, the value according to your own calculations are with Everton on the Asian Handicap, can you go against your beloved Hammers Eric?

Football is such an emotional game, we all have our loyalties, biases and our rivalries, but betting with value teaches us that we must put that above what our heart tells us and go with our heads. This is a numbers game we’re playing and as such logic will always beat emotion.

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