Betting tips & predictions
InPlay Football Betting Strategies, Part II
26th September 2019
Articles
In a recent article we spoke about inplay betting. We showed why inplay betting has become so popular in recent years and why it’s so important to us this to your advantage. We also wrote about a popular inplay betting strategy called ‘Lay the Draw’ and how to pick football matches for this strategy. You can read Part I here: Read Now
In this article we want to speak about the toughest but most rewarding of the inplay betting strategies; Laying the Correct Score. We’ll also write a bit about Over/Under betting and when you can take advantage of price movements. Let’s start then with Over/Under betting inplay.
Betting on Over/Under 2.5 goals inplay
Let’s have a look at an example from this weekend’s footballing action in England. A quick scan on the Bet Dynamo Insights page shows us that when Preston North End take on Bristol City this Saturday in the Championship it looks like a match ripe for goals:
As we can see here, the Bet Dynamo software shows that in previous league games this season Preston and Bristol have been involved in plenty of games where Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals has occurred, this is great for our example. We can see that Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 75% of matches involving the team. Fair odds for this would be around 1.33 (1/75 =0.0133 x 100 = 1.33), the bookies are currently offering it at 1.91 so that’s some great value. However, we can ask for more, especially if you use a Betting Exchange for your betting.
Before kickoff you can enter a price of, say, 2.10 and after about 10-15 minutes so long as no goal has been scored you’ll get matched in the market and then all we have to do is sit back and let the likes of Seanie Maguire and Benik Afobe fire in the goals.
Betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals inplay
Again looking at the Preston vs Bristol City match we can see that First Half goals have occurred in 88% of matches involving both teams. A fair odds price for 88% would be 1/88 = 0.01136 x 100 = 1.13. We can see in the image above it’s on offer for 1.22, so again we’re getting some decent value. However, betting at low odds isn’t very rewarding and in the long run it’s a bad idea as, so another way to potentially profit from this is in the Over 0.5 First Half Goals market. Instead of settleing for 1.22, you want a juciet price of 1.85, so prior to kick off you put in a price of 1.85 and make sure it’s clicked to go inplay. If the match is still 0-0 at around the 25-30 minute mark you should get matched and hopefully one of the teams will score before halftime for you to make a tidy profit.
We can also use this strategy for Over 1.5 or 2.5 goals as a game progresses. Let’s say that Bristol score first, around the 20 minute mark, the prematch odds were 1.81 and after the goal they’ll plummet to around 1.25, but as time creeps on by halt time we should be up around 1.60. 20 minutes into the second half and it’s still 0-1 to the away side but you’re watching the inplay stats and Preston are piling on the pressure, so you put in an order for Over 2.5 goals at 2.10. 2 minutes later you’re match and boom, Maguire scores and the odds again fall and you can cash out for a profit, hedge for a free bet, or you can wait and see if either of the sides will score again.
Laying the Correct Score
The daddy of all inplay betting strategies, the one with the highest reward but the highest risk too. It does what it says on the tin, you’re laying, or backing against the current score in a football match because you believe that another goal is coming.
Here are the optimal circumstances for Laying the Correct Score:
The prematch favourite are losing by a goal; as time ticks down the home crowd are going to be piling the pressure on their players and they’ll want to respond and keep them happy. As full time approaches they’ll play with a great sense of urgency as they chase an equalising goal and by doing so they could score, or leave themselves open to a counter attack.
Only one goal difference. If a team is 2-0 or 0-2 up then you’re betting off stepping away. If you’ve played football then you know that when you’re 0-2 down with 10 minutes to go you just want the match to end and get the manager shakedown over with and go home. It’s a tough scoreline to crawl back from and if you pay attention to results and the times goals are scored you’ll see that when there’s a two goal advantage the losing side don’t score much after a certain time period. However, when it’s just a one goal advantage then it’s still game on and the losing side know that they just need one good chance or one lucky deflection to draw level.
Game Stats. Pay close attention to how a game is going. Ideally you’re watching the match, but plenty of betting website now have very good inplay stats on display. Are the sides level and are they both attacking, is one winning by a goal and are the losing side attacking or are the losing side on the ascendency and seeking that all important equalising goal.
As you can see then there are many ways to bet inplay and you also use the mighty Bet Dynamo software to find inplay betting opportunities. Let us know on the Facebook group how you’re getting on.