Betting tips & predictions

How to Predict Football Matches

24th September 2019

Articles

As bettors we can sometimes be lured in by an attractive price. Sometimes it can be difficult to see the difference between a value price and a price the bookies have set just to lure you in. Bookmakers use all kinds of complicated algorithms and the best traders to predict matches and set their prices. Sometimes we forget that at its most basic we need to be able to predict football matches. Read on to find out what you need to be paying attention to, to be able to predict football matches better.

If you want to be able to predict what’s going to happen in football matches you need to start somewhere. If you’re trying to do it just by guessing what the result will be then really you’re just relying on luck. And yes, luck certainly plays a part in football but to be able to make predictions you need to be able to analyse previous matches to be able to predict what can happen in the future.

Variables

When wanting to predict what will happen in a football match we need to look at the variables. What are these? Goal differential (goals scored and conceded, both home and away), Shots on Goal, Shots on Target, xG, Location of Shots, Possession, Injuries and Suspensions and Motivation.

These are all the things that change from match to match, however when we look at the occurrence of events and the averages over a number of matches we get a good overall view of how a team is performing and can then make better predictions.

Goal Expectancy

What should we be looking for if we want to be able to predict how many goals will be scored in a football match? There are a few stats to look at. Shots on Target, Shots on Goal and Expected Goals (xG). There are a few options here, many people like to take Shots on Target stats, take an average of that and combine it with the average goals scored to get a good overview of how many shots a team needs to score on average.

Now the problem with this is that sometimes a team can huff and puff for 90 minutes and score nothing or on the other hand a team can have zero shots on goal and still win a match by two goals (own goals for example). The more you take into account the better informed you’ll be. Combining Shots on Target as well as Shots on Goal will give you a better idea of how a team play, you’ll get a good idea of how they apply pressure when looking for a goal and you’ll soon learn which teams are more goal hungry than others.

xG is another on to add into the mix, we’ve written about it before, but it’s basically the amount of goals a team should have scored in a match based on how good their chances were. This too can give a good indication of how a team is playing and thus you’ll be able to make better predictions.

Home Advantage

Home advantage in sports is a long held trope and the research and data back it up. In the European top leagues it was found that a home team has an advantage of around +0.40 goals at kickoff. Overall in football it tends to be around +0.75 goals around the world but for the Big 5 it’s around +0.40 goals. Why does it happen? The main reason seems to be that home crowds have an influence on referees. It’s been shown that referees don’t like to be the enemy of home crowds. That might be hard to believe but it’s been shown in multiple academic papers that this is the case. Whether they do it consciously or subsciously is still up for debate though.

There are also other factors, the home side are in their familiar, comfortable surroundings, they don’t need to travel far, or stay in a hotel after taking a flight the night before. Home advantage is a big deal in football so don’t forget about it.

Injuries and Suspensions and Team News

This almost goes without saying but really you cannot forget this. Of course injuries and suspensions are going to be very important. It a team is missing a few of their star players then you’re going to have to think twice before predicting a goalfest, the same goes for if their influential captain or goalkeeper for example, is suspended.

Are there any new signings going to be featured in the match, maybe the manager wants to rest one of his usual players and give a run out to a youth player. These are all things we need to factor into our predictions. Find yourself a good news source, or two, and arm yourself with more information to make better predictions.

Motivation

Are both teams involved in a relegation dogfight? Maybe they’re locked into a battle for the final European places for next season, or maybe both teams are already thinking about sunning themselves on the beach for the summer. The match could be a derby or it could be a manager returning to his old team and he’s desperate to prove a point with his old bosses. These are all further issues to think about when predicting football matches.

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