With a few games having been played we can take a look at some of the movers and shakers in the Premier League Top Scorer betting market. Last season the award was shared between Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubemayang and Liverpool pair Sadio Mane and Mo Salah, all scoring 22 goals. The session previous to that, Liverpool’s Mo Salah finished top with 32, with Spurs’ Harry Kane second on 30 goals.

Premier League Top Scorer Betting 2019/20

The Top Scorer market is one of the most popular ante-post markets but as with any longer-term betting market it can be difficult to find value and trends, although regarding trends we did find one or two. Of course, it can all go down the swanny without a paddle if your player gets injured and misses a large swathe of the season or if there’s a suspension at the tail end of the season.

With a market like this, as it’s mostly seen as a lucky punt you don’t tend to get the professional gamblers involved in the market. This means that the whole element of the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ doesn’t come into it. Sure, with enough people over enough time, you will be able to narrow down choices and the market will become efficient, but because the pros aren’t involved their knowledge doesn’t enter the market, so it will take longer for that to happen. So, basically what we’re saying is this should be treated as a fun bet, something to keep the Golden Boot race a little more interesting.

Premier League Top Scorer Betting 2019/20

Last year with the honour being shared between Aubemayang, Mane and Salah many would be forgiven for thinking this is somewhat uncommon but it doesn’t turn out to be so. In 1997/98 it was shared between Blackburn’s Chris Sutton, Coventry’s Dion Dublin and Liverpool’s Michael Owen with 18 goals. Again in 1998/99 it was shared between Owen, Man United’s Dwight Yorke and Leeds’ Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink again with 18 goals each. Finally then in 2010/11 it was shared in Manchester when Man City’s Carlos Tevez and Man United’s Dimitar Berbatov both scored 20 goals. As you can see it’s not unusual for the honours to be shared between a few players, so with that in mind maybe you might want to tick the wee ‘Each-Way’ option if you’re going to take a punt on this in a sportsbook rather than on an exchange.

Premier League Top Scorer Betting 2019/20

What are these trends then that we were talking about? Well, winners always come from the Top 5, except for in 1999/2000 when Sunderland’s Kevin Philips won the award with 30 goals as Sunderland finished 7th.

Let’s have a look at this years’ contenders. Last years’ winners Salah and Mane at Liverpool are both on four Premier League goals at the time of writing, while Arsenal’s Aubameyang is ahead of them with five. Runner up to Salah the previous season, Harry Kane is on three goals, while Manchester City’s main goal scoring threats, Sergio Aguero and Raheem Sterling have scored seven and five respectively.

There have been a couple of outliers already though and with one it’s difficult to totally dismiss him already. Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham who has seven goals in his five Premier League matches so far; three coming against Wolves, two against Sheffield United and two against Norwich. We’d like to dismiss Abraham, but it’s hard to dismiss the fact that he scored 26 goals in 40 appearances (0.65 goals per match) last season with Aston Villa and in his season-long loan at Bristol City in 2016/17 where he netted 23 in 41 (0.56 goals per match) and yes, obviously the Championship isn’t as difficult as the Premier League, but should Abraham continue this good run he could stay among the reckoning.

Norwich’s Teemu Pukki has been an absolute joy to watch, scoring six goals in his five Premier League matches, but it can’t last, can it?

Looking at the teams likely to finish in the Top 5, it’s hard to look past Liverpool’s Salah and Mane, Salah in particular looks like a good bet, currently at 6.0. James Milner isn’t getting as much game time this season and thus Salah is on penalties if Milner isn’t on the pitch. Aguero and Sterling at City, well to be honest, it’s just a matter of time before Aguero picks up an injury, he’s such a mighty player and he did win the Golden Boot in 2014-15 but since then he’s always fallen out of the reckoning thanks to injuries. Sterling could well step into his shoes on those occasions.

The best of the rest then would surely be in North London where it will be between Aubemayang and Kane. If things go well at Chelsea Abraham could be knocking at the door, but really it’s hard to see beyond the Liverpool pair or Sterling at City. Is Jamie Vardy an outside bet? Many are tipping Leicester City to finish in the Top 4, they’re going to have to rely on Vardy’s goals to achieve it, he’s a decent shout for an Each Way bet.