In a move that was about as shocking as finding out that chocolate makes you fat, Watford called time on Javi Gracia’s reign at Vicarage Road. You’d be forgiven for thinking it was a bit of a harsh decision, he did, afterall, steer the Hornets to their best ever Premier League finishing position of 11th. He also got them to their first ever FA Cup final; unfortunately it was against Manchester City and they lost 6-0 but still, not too bad if you look at it objectively.

But as you all know, objectivity has no place in football, we all have our biases and anyway, Watford have been truly dreadful this season. Of their four matches so far this season they’ve lost three and drawn one; losing to Brighton at home on the opening day, then Everton away followed by West Ham at home. Things looked to have improved away to Steve Bruce’s Newcastle in their last match but when you’re bottom of the Premier League looking up at the teams above you sometimes it takes a drastic change for things to improve.

Before the season began Watford were priced around 8.5 to be relegated, now they have dropped down to 3.5, so if you were into trading on betting exchanges you’d already have make a decent profit, however there are four other clubs ranked lower than them on price; Norwich at 2.32, Sheffield United at 2.48, Newcastle at 2.74 and Aston Villa at 2.92.

Betting on Premier League relegation has a certain element of what the Germans call schadenfreude, that is taking enjoyment from the hardship of others. Preseason you thought that Aston Villa have the weakest squad on paper so you put a tenner on them to go down at 3.0 and being a Birmingham City fan you took great joy in watching Spurs and Bournemouth beating them in their first two matches since returning to the Premier League. You cursed them for beating Everton 2-0 at home, but had a good chuckle when Jordan Ayew got a rare goal for Crystal Palace in the last round of matches.

At this early part of the season it can be very difficult to make good predictions for betting on Premier League relegation. Of course many will have gone with last year’s promoted trio of Sheffield United, Villa and Norwich to go straight back down, but for every Fulham there’s a Wolves and since the Premier League began it’s only happened once that all three promoted teams were relegated the following season. Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and Crystal Palace were all promoted from the Championship following the 1996/97 season, they were relegated the following 1997/98 season. To get a better idea of who will be relegated, we have to look to the teams that have flirted with the relegation zone in previous seasons, we’re looking at you Newcastle, Southampton and Burnley.

Premier League Relegation Betting

In the previous five seasons, we can see that usually two of the three who come up are relegated back to the Championship the following season, however, at the end of the 2017-18 season none of the new boys, Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield, were relegated, it was Swansea, Stoke and West Brom who were banished.

What makes relegation so difficult to predict these days is that Premier League boardrooms are far more trigger happy than their colleagues from the earlier years of the Premier League. Managers now, on average, don’t last much longer than a year in a managerial role so while the sacking of Javi Gracia might look harsh to some he surely won’t be the last to go and we should see at least three more managers given their marching orders before the transfer window reopens in January.

Towards the business end of the season we’ll see far more action in the Premier League relegation market, but it can be good to get in early for a better price if you fancy someone to go down that isn’t hotly tipped. Or you can just treat it like a bit of fun and stick a small stake on that one team who you hope will struggle because you just don’t like something about them. Let us know in our Facebook group which Premier League team you love to hate and would like to see relegated. If you’re not a member of the group head over there and get involved (VIP Group). Check back regularly too as we have tons of great members who love to share their football tips that they’ve gotten from the Bet Dynamo software.