In this article we want to speak about dropping odds, and, of course, their inverse, rising odds and how you can use these odds along with the fantastic Bey Dynamo software together to make better betting decisions.

What are Dropping Odds?

Dropping odds are exactly just that, betting odds that are falling in price. Let’s give an example; let’s say that Arsenal have been playing their last two Premier League matches without their main scoring threats, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette. When you check the odds for Arsenal taking on Chelsea at home they are available for around 2.25 to win. However, news breaks soon after that both strikers are fit enough to play and should start. Suddenly Arsenal’s price drops to 2.0 as punters begin to pile on the money thinking that Arsenal will go on to win the match with their starmen back.

Dropping, and rising odds can be used in a few different ways and are yet another great addition to your, err, betting arsenal. Kind of wish we’d picked a different team now because it looks like a lame pun…anyway, when the odds are dropping they are the single best indication that money is being put into the market and this is causing bookmakers to react and cut the odds down so they can balance their books and still earn a nice commission when the 90 minutes come to an end.

Dropping Odds in Football Betting

Dropping odds are also a good indication that something has happened to one of the teams. Another example then: let’s say that Real Madrid are at home to PSG in the Champions League group stage. It’s the final match of the stage and whoever wins will qualify for the next round, the loser will be banished to the Europa League, so it’s all to play for. As you check the price for Over 2.5 goals in the hope of finding some value suddenly the screen lights up and the price for Unders shoots up. It’s gone from 1.80 to 1.90 in just a few minutes, what’s happened? More than likely some news has broken that some star players, or players, have been forced to withdraw with injuries and won’t make the game. A quick look at a football news site tells you Neymar is out with a pulled muscle, it’s advantage Real Madrid. Check their price to win the match and it will also have moved, but in the opposite direction, it will have dropped down thanks to the Brazilian missing the upcoming decider.

Finding Bets with Dropping Odds

How then can we use dropping odds or rising odds with the Bet Dynamo software to find value? At the time of writing we don’t have data for the Big 5 European leagues on the website (we’ll wait until a few rounds of fixtures have been played) so we’ve picked a match from this weekend’s round of MLS fixtures. New York City are at home to Houston Dynamo. Let’s have a look at the Over/Under 2.5 goals market. Currently, the price on Pinnacle for Over 2.5 goals is 1.57, while Unders is 2.48. Both of these prices opened at 1.65 and 2.29 respectively. In an upcoming article we’ll explain why many bettors use Pinnacle for data like that.

Already we can see that the market has caused the price for Overs to fall 8 ticks and Unders has rising by a whopping 19. The market is very much behind there being at least 3 goals in this match this weekend. However, having a look at the Bet Dynamo software we can see something that would tempt us in the opposite direction. Have a look here:

We can see clearly that the Bet Dynamo software indicates that Over 2.5 goals has only occurred in 60% of matches involving NYC and Houston Dynamo. Hold on now you’re thinking, those odds don’t seem fair, you’re correct, they aren’t.

If something has a 60% probability of occuring the odds should be more like 1.66, add in the bookie’s cut and we’re talking about something more like 1.60, so anything above that would indicate value. We’ve only being offered 1.57. Here the value lies in opposing Over 2.5 goals, so laying 1.57 on a Betting Exchange might be the best way to go.

We can take a second example from the same match though. Both Teams to Score has occurred in 50% of matches involving these teams in the MLS this season, but the odds on offer are a measly 1.67. Surely if something has a 50% chance it should be close to 2.0, factor in the bookie’s cut and anything from 1.91 upwards would indicate a 50% chance. So the real value here is with Both Teams to Score: No, currently priced around 2.12, the highest being 2.30 on Bet Victor. This of course, is just an example, have a look at the match on the Insights page yourself and you can drill down further into the stats and read up any possible injury news to make your own, informed decision.

But the lesson is here for you, use the Bet Dynamo software along with movements in betting prices, as well as injury news too, to make better, more informed betting choices.