Betting tips & predictions

Picking A Winning Football Acca (Accumulator)

9th January 2019

Articles

This is the age-old question that people ask themselves every Saturday morning (and most week days to most likely). So, what is the best way to pick a winning acca?

Well, first things first, there is no such thing as a sure-fire way to pick a winner. BUT… there are techniques you can use to give yourself the best chance possible of picking that winning combination.

How many selections/legs?

An Acca can mean anything from a double up to however many selections your chosen bookmaker will let you go up to.

Here at Bet Dynamo we prefer to keep the selections down to just 2-6 picks depending on what we want to achieve. This means we can concentrate on making sure there is good value in each pick and secondly, so we limit our chances of a leg letting us down.

The banker selection(s)

Any good acca is made up of 1 or more banker selections which you can ‘rely’ on, this should be the selection that you definitely don’t expect to let you down. This selection is usually the lowest odds pick. An example of a banker would be Man City to win at home vs Everton at odds of around 1.25 (1/4).

Banker selections can also be made up of goal events, such as Over 1.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS. That’s where Bet Dynamo can help, we have an array of insights and stats (HERE) to help you pick the perfect selections for your acca.

The more ‘banker’ selections you add into the acca the lower the odds are likely to be but statistically you will have a bigger chance of it winning.

Value selections

We like value selections here at Bet Dynamo. Value selections are where the odds are higher than the banker selections but you can still make a strong case for it to win. Typically, you’ll find these in more obscure leagues where the bookie is prepared to offer higher odds to attract more bets.

The value selections can be easily found using Bet Dynamo’s Insights and Team Stats. Simply turn the bookie’s odds into an implied probability and compare that to our % of times that event has happened so far this season. If the bookie’s implied probability is lower than our % then the bookie has likely ‘overpriced’ their odds and we can look to exploit that in our acca.

Form and team news

Of course, this is a big one, it’s always a good idea to check the form of the two teams involved in each selection. The last 4-6 games can offer a good insight as to how each side is playing, the goals they’re scoring and those they’re conceding.

You also want to be checking the injury news for both sides. For example Liverpool rely heavily on Salah and Firmino for their goals, if one of those is injured then that needs to be factored into your decision.

Stake

How much you bet on your accumulator is really down to the individual, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

However, the other thing to consider is the odds of your acca, the higher the odds the smaller you’ll want your stake to be.

Things to avoid when picking your acca

Backing your own team - Fans can be either too critical or too optimistic about games their team are involved in. You may reckon you’re thinking objectively about it but it makes sense to just leave it alone.

Long Odds (anything higher than 3.00 (2/1)) – The price is high for a reason, and it’s highly likely that this lets your acca down. If you do fancy a longer odds bet then it’s probably best to place it as a single.

Injuries and suspensions – We have touched on this already, but it really is an important one. Check that the best players are playing, and if they’re not, then leave that selection out.

Poor form – This one should be obvious, you will want to avoid all sides who are on a bad run of results, unless of course you’re betting against them.

Teams that don’t score many goals – Goals win games. Simple. If you don’t score many goals then you can’t win and this can turn your acca into a loser. However, you can of course use these stats to your advantage and bet on the unders market Insights.

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